The Mandalorian and Grogu Dominates Box Office Despite Underperforming Star Wars Legacy, ‘Obsession’ Surges Unexpectedly

The highly anticipated Star Wars cinematic debut, The Mandalorian and Grogu, has soared to the pinnacle of the Hollywood box office, securing the top spot in its inaugural weekend. The film, a continuation of the beloved Disney+ series, garnered an impressive US$82 million domestically during its opening weekend, Friday through Sunday, May 22-24, 2026. Projections extending through the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, May 25, indicate a robust four-day haul estimated at US$102 million, cementing its immediate commercial presence.

This performance, while undeniably strong enough to claim the weekend’s highest gross, has ignited a nuanced discussion among industry analysts. Securing a debut north of US$100 million in the post-pandemic era is widely considered a significant achievement for any film. However, the colossal legacy and unparalleled brand power of the Star Wars franchise, particularly under Disney’s stewardship, often set a far loftier benchmark. Consequently, the opening figures for The Mandalorian and Grogu have been met with a blend of satisfaction for its market dominance and critical scrutiny regarding its performance relative to its esteemed predecessors.

A Star Wars Legacy Under Scrutiny

Since The Walt Disney Company’s acquisition of Lucasfilm in 2012 for a staggering US$4.05 billion, the Star Wars saga has seen a renewed, albeit sometimes turbulent, cinematic life. The franchise’s return to the big screen began with Star Wars: The Force Awakens in 2015, which shattered records with an unprecedented US$247.9 million opening weekend in North America. Subsequent main saga films, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017) and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019), also posted formidable opening weekends of US$220 million and US$177 million, respectively. Standalone films like Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) opened to US$155 million, demonstrating the franchise’s consistent ability to draw massive crowds.

In this context, The Mandalorian and Grogu‘s US$82 million (or US$102 million over four days) represents the lowest opening for a Star Wars film released under the Disney banner. The previous lowest was Solo: A Star Wars Story in 2018, which debuted with US$84.4 million over its four-day Memorial Day weekend, a figure that was widely considered disappointing at the time and contributed to a re-evaluation of the franchise’s cinematic release strategy.

"While being number one is always a win, the Star Wars brand, especially a property as universally beloved as The Mandalorian, typically commands a significantly higher floor," commented veteran box office analyst Sarah Jenkins of CineTrack Analytics. "This performance, while strong, suggests a shifting landscape for even the most dominant franchises. It raises questions about audience fatigue, the impact of the streaming-first strategy for the series, and whether the ‘event’ status of Star Wars films has diminished slightly since the Skywalker saga concluded."

This film marks the first Star Wars theatrical release since The Rise of Skywalker closed out the nine-chapter saga in 2019, ultimately earning over US$1 billion globally. The hiatus of nearly seven years was intended to rebuild anticipation and strategically reintroduce the franchise to cinemas, following the mixed critical and commercial reception of some earlier Disney-era films. The transition of The Mandalorian from a critically acclaimed, fan-favorite streaming series to a big-screen spectacle was seen as a safe and logical next step, leveraging established characters and lore. The series itself has been a flagship for Disney+, playing a pivotal role in the platform’s subscriber growth and cultural impact.

Globally, The Mandalorian and Grogu added US$64 million from international markets, bringing its worldwide three-day total to US$145 million. The four-day global projection reaches US$165 million. These figures, while respectable, underscore the challenges of launching a major tentpole film in a still-recovering international theatrical market, particularly given the substantial production budget, which industry insiders estimate to be well over US$200 million, before factoring in extensive global marketing costs. For the film to achieve profitability and meet Disney’s high expectations, a global gross of at least US$500-600 million will likely be necessary.

Obsession’s Unprecedented Surge

In a surprising turn of events, the psychological horror film Obsession captivated audiences in its second weekend, climbing to the second position at the domestic box office. After a quiet debut last weekend with US$16 million, the film defied typical box office trajectories by increasing its gross by an extraordinary 30 percent, pulling in US$22 million over the current three-day period. Its four-day Memorial Day weekend estimate is a remarkable US$28.2 million.

This phenomenon of a second-weekend increase, particularly one of such magnitude for a wide release, is exceptionally rare in the film industry. It typically signifies overwhelmingly positive word-of-mouth, strong critical reception, or a lack of direct competition in its genre. In Obsession‘s case, it appears to be a potent combination of these factors. Early reviews for the film have lauded its intense atmosphere, compelling performances, and intricate plot, creating a buzz that resonated deeply with audiences in its second frame.

"A 30 percent jump in a film’s second weekend is almost unheard of for a wide theatrical release," noted film industry analyst David Chen of Box Office Pro. "This indicates a genuine groundswell of positive audience reaction. People are telling their friends, and the film is benefiting from organic discovery. It’s a testament to the power of a well-crafted genre film that connects with its target demographic, especially when counter-programming against a massive blockbuster like Star Wars."

The success of Obsession highlights the enduring appeal and financial viability of the horror genre, which often delivers high returns on relatively modest budgets. While specific production costs for Obsession have not been publicly disclosed, horror films are generally produced more economically than superhero or sci-fi epics, making their paths to profitability shorter and less reliant on blockbuster-level openings. This film’s performance serves as a powerful reminder that compelling storytelling and effective marketing, even without a massive IP, can still draw significant crowds to cinemas.

‘Michael’ Continues its Record-Breaking Ascent

Holding strong in its fifth weekend, the musical biopic Michael secured the third spot, further solidifying its impressive run. The film, chronicling the life and career of Michael Jackson, earned an additional US$20 million over the three-day weekend, with an estimated US$25.7 million for the four-day holiday period.

To date, Michael has amassed a staggering US$319 million in North America and an exceptional US$788 million globally. Its consistent performance suggests strong legs and widespread appeal, positioning it to imminently surpass the global earnings of Bohemian Rhapsody (2018), which took in US$911 million worldwide. If Michael achieves this milestone, it will officially become the highest-grossing music biopic of all time, a remarkable achievement for a genre that has seen a resurgence in popularity.

The film’s success is attributed to its high production values, compelling narrative, and strong performances, particularly its lead actor’s portrayal of the King of Pop. The enduring global fascination with Michael Jackson’s music and legacy, combined with a meticulously crafted cinematic experience, has clearly resonated with audiences across demographics and continents. The biopic trend, exemplified by Michael, Bohemian Rhapsody, and other recent successes, demonstrates a significant appetite among moviegoers for biographical dramas centered around iconic figures, especially those in the music industry.

Other Notable Box Office Performers

Dropping to fourth place, The Devil Wears Prada 2, a sequel to the beloved 2006 fashion-world satire, continued its solid run with US$12.6 million over the weekend. After four weeks in theaters, this nostalgia-driven follow-up has accumulated US$197 million domestically and an impressive US$604 million globally. The film’s international appeal underscores the power of established characters and a loyal fan base, even after a significant gap between installments. Its success highlights a growing trend of revisiting popular intellectual properties with sequels that cater to an audience eager for familiar stories and characters.

Rounding out the top five was The Sheep Detectives, a charming mystery film starring Hugh Jackman alongside a quirky cast of talking sheep. The film showed remarkable resilience, experiencing only a modest 6 percent drop from its previous weekend, earning US$8.9 million. Its four-day projection stands at US$12.3 million. This family-friendly offering has now collected US$46.9 million in North America and US$82 million globally.

However, the road to profitability for The Sheep Detectives presents a greater challenge. Amazon MGM, the studio behind the film, invested a substantial US$75 million in its production budget. Given the significant marketing costs associated with a wide release and the need to share ticket revenues with exhibitors, the film will require sustained strong performance to recoup its investment and turn a profit. Its consistent hold, however, indicates positive reception among families and a niche audience, which could give it longer legs in the weeks to come.

Broader Industry Implications and Future Outlook

The Memorial Day weekend, traditionally a bellwether for the summer movie season, offers a mixed but generally optimistic picture for the theatrical industry. While The Mandalorian and Grogu secured the top spot, its performance underscores the evolving dynamics of mega-franchise releases in a post-streaming landscape. Disney and Lucasfilm will undoubtedly be analyzing whether the prolonged presence of The Mandalorian on Disney+ has inadvertently conditioned some audiences to await its eventual streaming release rather than rushing to theaters. This could influence future strategies for Star Wars cinematic ventures, potentially leading to more distinct narratives or higher stakes to draw audiences back to the big screen.

The unexpected triumph of Obsession is a strong signal that original content and well-executed genre films can thrive, offering a crucial counterbalance to the dominance of established intellectual properties. It reaffirms that quality storytelling and effective audience engagement remain paramount.

Meanwhile, the sustained success of Michael demonstrates the robust demand for biographical dramas and highlights the power of iconic musical legacies to transcend generations and attract global audiences. The strong performances of The Devil Wears Prada 2 and the steady hold of The Sheep Detectives further illustrate the diverse interests of today’s moviegoers, suggesting that a varied slate of films, catering to different demographics and tastes, is essential for a healthy box office.

As the summer season progresses, the industry will be closely watching how these trends evolve. The theatrical market continues its recovery, but the landscape is undeniably different. Studios are navigating increased competition from streaming services, altered viewing habits, and the perpetual challenge of delivering content that justifies the cinematic experience. The weekend’s results for The Mandalorian and Grogu, alongside the surprising resilience of its competitors, paint a complex yet dynamic picture of an industry in constant adaptation.